Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak.

Watch our Economic Letter video with Adam Shapiro, Vice President, Economic Research, to learn more about our measurements of ...

U.S. labor productivity initially surged in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the massive economic upheaval. As the economy recovered, the level of productivity retreated to its slow ...

Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak. Analysis shows that two labor market indicators—the ratios of job vacancies to ...

We study how changes in the composition of Chinese local government debt influenced bank risk taking, credit allocation, and local productivity. Using confidential loan-level data and a ...

The Phillips curve plays a central role in the macroeconomics literature. However, there is little consensus on the forcing variable that drives inflation in the model, i.e., on the appropriate ...

Economists Regis Barnichon and Adam Shapiro find that recent inflation dynamics can be at least partially explained by patterns of excess demand in the economy. In this Economic Letter video, Adam ...

We examine the impact of systematic media reporting on household inflation expectations, focusing on how selective news coverage influences household responses to inflation news. In a model where ...

Our new data page, CPI Inflation Contributions from Goods and Services, details the evolution of inflation using the consumer ...