As Donald Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” for announcing “reciprocal” tariffs on America’s trading partners approaches, the question in Beijing is whether this will be the moment when its nascent trade war with the US really escalates.

Orders have evaporated for Richard Chen, who manufactures Christmas decorations in southern China for U.S. retailers, including Walmart and Costco, facing crippling U.S. tariffs. "The orders are half of what they were last year,